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As we flip the calendar to a new year, many of us set goals for self-improvement鈥攂ut could your expectations about success or failure actually determine the outcome? Endicott鈥檚 Distinguished Professor of Psychology John Kelley weighs in.

As we flip the calendar to a new year, many of us set goals for self-improvement—but could your expectations about success or failure actually determine the outcome?

Endicott’s Distinguished Professor of Psychology, Dr. John Kelley, an expert in placebo and nocebo effects in medicine, explains how the power of belief extends far beyond healthcare. The placebo effect—when a beneficial outcome stems from belief in a treatment—and its opposite, the nocebo effect, highlight how our expectations can shape reality.

We asked Dr. Kelley: Can these psychological forces influence whether your New Year’s resolutions succeed? His insights might just change the way you approach your goals.

Does believing you can change your habits play a role in the success of a New Year's resolution?

I don’t study New Year’s resolutions per se, but it’s clear that placebo and nocebo effects happen through psychological mechanisms, including expectations. So, if a person were to set up a resolution but start with a negative mindset where they don’t think they can succeed, it would be more difficult to follow through on that resolution.

Your expectations make a big difference in how things work out for you, both positively in the sense of placebo effects and also negatively, as in the nocebo effect. For example, there’s a classic experimental paradigm in which people who have undergone surgery are randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions.

In the first condition, a healthcare clinician comes in and says, “Okay, here’s your morphine shot. It’s going to help you with your pain.” In the second condition, the medicine is delivered through an IV line by a computer, and the patient doesn’t know when they will receive it.

It turns out that people get much more pain relief when they are aware that they are receiving medicine as compared to when they are not. We know that morphine is a potent painkiller, so it was very surprising to find that the effects of that medicine can be greatly increased simply by letting the patient know that they were receiving a painkiller.

How does a positive or negative expectation affect someone’s motivation and long-term commitment to keeping a resolution?

A resolution should be something that you believe is doable. So, if you say, “I’m going to lose 50 pounds,” but that doesn’t seem very likely to you, you’re probably setting yourself up for failure. If, instead, you set your resolution as losing something smaller, like 10 pounds, and you have a positive attitude that you could succeed, then you’re more likely to take consistent action to meet that goal.

Setting a reasonable goal and approaching it with a positive attitude makes it more attainable. A positive mindset has downstream effects and makes you do a little bit more of whatever you’re supposed to be doing. This reinforces itself because you get into a virtuous circle and feel good about the progress you’re making, which strengthens your resolve.

Many people go into the new year with a positive mindset but lose momentum on their resolutions. How can we keep that momentum going?

Start with a positive mindset as much as possible and make the goal reasonable. Break it into small, achievable goals, and remember that you don’t have to be perfect. If you’re moving in the right direction, that is good enough. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.

It’s amazing how much we are creatures of habit, so setting up positive habits is crucial. It’s very easy for me to forget to bring my gym clothes when I set off for work in the morning, so I miss working out. To counter this, when I get home each evening, I immediately pack my gym bag so I don’t have any excuses.

Do you have any suggestions on breaking out of a negative mindset that may have caused past resolutions to flop?

People often have negative expectations that they’re not fully aware of. When we focus on negative things, like a headache, they’re harder to tolerate, and the symptom is amplified and made stronger. Pain tends to be less intense for people when they’re engaged in meaningful work or talking to a friend. In contrast, when they try to go to sleep, pain is often worse because there’s nothing else to focus on, nothing to distract them from focusing on how bad the pain is.

Similarly, if you’re exercising, it’s easier to distract yourself in some way, like watching a movie while doing the Stairmaster. It’s generally much more difficult to keep going when you stare at the clock and hope this will be over soon.

Be aware of negative cognitions. Don’t beat yourself up if you didn’t work out as hard as you planned. Say to yourself, “I made it to the gym. Good for me.” It doesn't have to be perfect; just do something that moves you in the right direction.

Do you typically make New Year’s resolutions?

Rather than making radical changes in January, a better strategy is to make healthier choices throughout the year that are heading in the right direction. If you’re trying to get in shape, it’s better to make a permanent lifestyle change than go on a radical—but temporary—diet to lose a specific amount of weight.

I do think that resolutions can be helpful if they’re not too extreme and if you think about how to get there step by step rather than just the big goal. I also think a public proclamation that you’ve made a resolution does help people stick to their goals.

Our psychology makes a big difference in how things work out for us. We all can benefit greatly from attending to our attitudes and mindsets and, to the degree possible, changing them in ways that will be beneficial to our health and well-being.